A Forecast-Skill-Based Dynamic Pre-Storm Level Control for Reservoir Flood-Control Operation

The design and operation of reservoirs based on conventional flood-limited water levels (FLWL) implicitly adopts the assumption hydrological stationarity. As such, historical-record-based FLWL may not be best choice for flood-control operations due to inherent non-stationarity rainfall inputs. With maturing flood forecasts, this study focuses establishing linkage between skill forecast, thus developing a “dynamic pre-storm level” approach reservoir operations. utilizes forecast magnitude, exceedance probability error determine storage each event. incoming is used as control standard instead static return interval flood. This demonstrated in hypothetical situation Three Gorges Reservoir China. results show that under zero-forecast-skill conditions, proposed dynamic level matches well with Reservoir-designed FLWL; and, accuracy/skill increase, can make better use increased accuracy, thereby maximizing floodwater utilization storage. In way, coupling new allows more efficient economic day-to-day without adding any risk. validates usefulness during season, considering improvement accuracy.